46%
Third bench attempts are coin flips
Third attempts were made 64% of the time in the squat, 60% in the deadlift and 46% in the bench.
Call your next attempt with 12 million real ones behind you.
Enter your meet so far. For every weight you could call next, see how often lifters in your spot made it. Built on every recorded attempt in OpenPowerlifting since 2000.
Today
Opener
—kg
Made it
—
You
How to read the numbers
What a percentage means. It is the share of lifters in your situation who made that weight: same lift, attempt, weight relative to their best, what happened earlier, category, equipment, experience and federation.
Why you can trust the scale. The model was checked on 2025–26 meets it never saw. When it says 60%, close to 60% of those attempts were made.
What it can't tell you. Lifters pick weights by how the last one felt, and the numbers carry that in. They describe what happened after a call like yours, not what would happen to anyone who forces it. Your coach and your warm-ups know things the data never will.
What 12 million attempts say
×5
Heavy openers bomb out more
Opening a bench above your previous best ends with three red lights about 5–6% of the time, against about 1% for openers at 85–92%.
+4%
The safest-bet third attempt
A third attempt 3–4.5% over a made second gives the highest expected gain you can count on in all three lifts, without assuming anything about how lifters pick weights.
−24%
Misses travel
Each miss on an early squat or bench attempt lowers the odds of making the deadlift opener by about a quarter, even after accounting for its weight and the day's form.
Read the paper for methods, the "jump paradox" and the limits of what this data can show.